Please click the link below to view Shane Oliver’s review of 2024 and outlook for 2025.
Key points raised are:
- The key themes for 2024 were: better than expected growth, global divergence, more disinflation, falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong
- 2025 is likely to see positive returns, but after the surprising calm of 2024, it’s likely to be far more volatile and more constrained.
- Expect the RBA cash rate to fall to 3.6%, the ASX to rise to 8800 and balanced super fund to return around 6%
- Australian home prices will likely see further softness ahead of rate cuts providing a boost in the second half of 2025
- Key things to keep an eye on are : interest rates, recession risk, a potenital trade war; and the Australian consumer.
